2019 세계경제전망 – 중국 경제

중국 고성장 유지설

1.낮은 도시화율

-서북지역개발

2.내수가 남았다

-낮은 민간 소비 비중

*gdp= 민간소비+민간투자+정부지출+순수출

3.정책이 다르다

-미국 영향 없다

 

1.수출전선

-gdp 대비 대미 비중 3.6%

이유:미중 무역분쟁 직접적인 원인은 될 수 없다

– 수출 둔화

이유:중국의 평균 임금 및 증가

공장 임대료 상승

건보료 부담: 회사40% 개인 20%

2.과잉생산

-고부가가치 산업으로의 이동 못함(기존 산업 과잉 투자)

3. 내수 전환 이상 없나

-소매 판매 감소

내구재 소비 하락

4.일대일로

-해외에 재철소 짓는다

산업구조조정 대신 기존 중심 산업을 유지한다 (시진핑 정책)

(민간 소비 늘릴 의지가 없고, 과잉 생산 지속한다는 의지)

 

 

중국 부동산 시장

-조정기에 들어간 핵심도시 집값과 상승중인 지방 집값

-중국 부동산 회사 부채비율 심각

 

중국 부채 제거가 어려움

-만기 회사채의 비중이 늘어난다

-기업부채는 은행부실이다

증시 자본시장 직접금융 조달 비율 10%불과

중국은 은행에서 돈을 빌려서 사업한다. 주식이 아니다

중국 기업 부채의 특징

-국영기업=중후장비 산업(전기,통신,가스,은행)

-민간기업 보다 비효율적인 경영

-국유기업 회복을 위해 은행 저금리 대출(저금리정책)

 

중국이 내수를 확장 시키지 못하는 이유

소비증가->저축율 하락->저금리 대출불가->국유기업 대출 불가능

 

중국경제 문제점

-산업구조 및 국유기업 구조조정 없이 경제가 굴러간다

-은행유지와 국유기업 확장을 위해 부동산 가격 부양 조장

 

경제 발전은 독재체제에서 성공할 수 없다.

 

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