2019년 한국 경제 전망

2019년 한국 경제 체크 – 소비, 설비 투자

원인:2018년 상반기 민간 소비 늘었다

이유:2018년 1분기 명목 임금 상승

 

2019년 소비

경기 둔화 우려 = 소비를 줄이자

1.소비 성향 높은 취약계층 중심 취업자수 감소

자영업도 빈부 격차가 발생한다.

자영업은 프렌차이즈(백종원 식당)와 경쟁한다

2.부동산

부동산 침체 예상 된다.

주택 가격 1%상승 소비 0.6% 줄어든다

 

2016년 이후 생산가능인구 감소한다 – 취업자 감소

2031년 이후 대한민국 인구 감소한다 – 소비 감소

은퇴가 50 만명 , 취업자는 30만명 – 일자리가 넘쳐난다

생산인구 감소- 소비 증가- 일자리 부족-임금 상승-소비 유지

 

 

2.투자

설비 투자는 줄어든다.

 

3.건설

건설 투자 급감

건설 지표 좋은 것 없다

상업용 부동산 공실률 상승

 

1.2019년 성장률 3% (건설업 제외)

정말 안 좋은 것 아니다.

박근혜 정부 때 건설 투자가 많았다.

하반기 부동산도 좋아 질 것이다

 

2.soc 예산 늘었다.

보건, 의료

 

3.정부지출

슈퍼예산 (470조), 2018년 428조 9.7% 상승

2017년 3.1% 성장의 비밀

민간소비와 건설투자가 성장을 이끌고

순수출은 gdp 를 깎아 먹었다

 

2019년 경제 성장에 정부 기여 역할이 클 것이다.(1%)

 

2019년 순수출 전망

중국: 기저효가 와 반도체

미국:자동차 부진

일본:석유화학제품

아세안:환율불안

 

환율이 수출에 영향이 클 것이다.

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