반도체의 저주 – 2018년 한국 경제 정리

전제

1.한국 경제는 수출 주도형 이다.

2.신흥국 경제 부진 – 미국 고금리 자금유출

 

세계 경제는 좋아지는데 신흥국 수출이 증가 되지 않는다.

선진국 간 교역 무역을 한다

국제적 분업 질서가 줄어들고 있다.

why?

1.보호무역

2.임금 격차가 줄어든다

 

경제 호황에서 왜 미국만 좋아졌나

제조업 경쟁력 순위 – 미국

해외 직접 투자가 줄어든다

4차 산업 혁명과 연관이 있다

1.테슬라가 미국에서 생산한다

 

 

설비와 건설 투자 부진

3분기 이후 마이너스 기록한 GDI(국내 총소득)

수입하는 물건이 비싸면 GDI가 낮아진다.

최근 유가가 오르고 있다.

 

대한민국 버팀목

1.수출

2.반도체

3.삼성

 

반도체

1.초기투자비용 , 진입장벽이 높다

2.고용효과가 적다 (장치 산업)

3.부가가치율이 높다 (반도체, 담배)

 

부가가치율 높음 = 무역흑자 = 환율 하락

다른 나라 평가 절하 되고 있는데, 왜 우리나라는 환율 변동이 없을까?

 

반도체는 달러로 거래한다. = 달러 오르면 좋다

 

2018년 위기 = 제조업의 위기다

군산 , 포드, 거제, 울산

 

반도체가 우리나라의 위기를 가져온다(반도체의 저주)

환율 하락 , 해외 경제력 감소

현대는 삼성을 정말 미워 할 것이다.

 

결론

2018년 경제가 나빴던 이유

1.세계경제성장에서 상대적으로 신흥국이 소외되었다

2.투자가 급속히 악화되었다

3.반도체의 저주가 존재했다

4.gdi 지수 체감경기 악화

5. 기자 들의 기사

 

2018년  경제 , 세계 경제가 왜 안 좋았을까?

선진국은 올랐는데, 개도국은 힘들었다

국제 분업 질서가 이전과 다르다

신흥국의 입금이 오르고 중국은 내수 절전 중심으로 이동

선진국은 4차 산업으로 인한 자체 생산 가능

한국은 수출이 부진 한 것도 아닌데…

대외 의존 국가인데, 다른 나라에 비해 환율이 조금 떨어졌는데.

환율이 조금 떨어진 이유는 반도체 산업의 호황 때문이다

다른 산업 제조업체는 수출이 어려웠다.

반도체는 설비 투자는 이미 끝났고 설비 투자는 안했다.

왜 3분기가 어려웠나?

설비 투자 부진 및 gdi 문제가 있었다.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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